▲ For
Hybrid bonding arrives in time
Stacks are getting too tall and too hot for solder bumps, and Samsung is ready to fuse the floors first.
What would prove it wrong
All three makers state that their 2027 HBM products use TCB only
Before Dec 2027
Investing starts with a thesis.
The tickers come after.
Testable theses, both sides, every milestone tracked — free.
LIVE
Semiconductors
Hybrid bonding enters HBM by end-2027
▲ For · Hybrid bonding arrives in time
▼ Against · Solder bumps live on
Facts logged: ▲ 1 for · ▼ 8 against
Next · ~23 Dec 2026 · in 42 days
Micron fiscal Q1 results
Updated 2 days ago
Explore the thesis
● Besi BESI● Hanmi Semiconductor 042700● SK Hynix 000660● Samsung Electronics 005930● Micron MU● ASMPT 0522● Applied Materials AMAT● ASML ASML● Nvidia NVDA
A thesis is a claim you can check: a deadline, two sides, and the facts that decide it.
02 · BOTH SIDES
We don't pick a side for you.
We show both and log every fact that moves the balance.
Hybrid bonding enters HBM by end-2027
▼ Against
Solder bumps live on
A taller height limit lets the proven method keep working, and the switch slips to HBM5, after 2027.
What would prove it wrong
Any maker confirms volume production of hybrid-bonded HBM
Window open
Q4 2026 – Q4 2027
First volume orders from a memory maker
22 Oct 2026
Besi Q3 results
28 Oct 2026
SK Hynix Q3 results
29 Oct 2026
Samsung Q3 full results
~23 Dec 2026
Micron fiscal Q1 results
2027
16-high HBM4E qualified on solder bumps
2027
Samsung uses hybrid bonding in shipping HBM4E
Before Dec 2027
All three makers commit to solder bumps through 2027
Date TBD
JEDEC decides the HBM4E height limit
~27 Jan 2027
SK Hynix Q4 2026 results
25 Feb 2027
Besi Q4 2026 results
22 Apr 2027
Besi Q1 2027 results
31 Dec 2027
Resolution date
Prices · 6M
▲ Besi BESI▼ Hanmi Semiconductor 042700
Loading prices…
% change from start of range.
See the full case
03 · EXPLAINED
Hard ideas, plain words.
AI chips need very fast memory, built as a tower of thin chips joined with tiny solder bumps. The question: will at least one memory maker switch to hybrid bonding, which fuses the chips directly, in volume production before the end of 2027?
01
What HBM is
An AI chip sits in the middle, surrounded by towers of memory called HBM. Each tower is up to 16 thin memory chips stacked like floors. The taller the tower, the more memory the AI chip can use.
02
Two ways to join the floors
Today the floors are joined with tiny solder bumps. Hybrid bonding fuses copper to copper with no bumps, so the same number of floors takes less height and runs cooler.
03
The height limit decides
An industry body, JEDEC, caps how tall a tower can be: 775 µm today. With 16 floors, bumps barely fit, so fusing wins. If the cap rises to about 900 µm, as JEDEC is weighing, bumps fit again: that is the Against case.
Every thesis comes with a plain-words version, a glossary and visual explainers.
04 · CONNECTIONS
Follow the links.
Understanding how companies depend on each other is how you form your own view.
100%
Click, then scroll to zoom · drag to move
▲ Besi BESI
- → Samsung Electronics · possible hybrid-bonder customer for HBM
- → Micron · possible hybrid-bonder customer for HBM
- → Hanmi Semiconductor · rival technologies: fused vs bumps
- → ASMPT · competitor in bonders
- → ASML · possible new competitor in hybrid bonding
- → Applied Materials · build the Kinex hybrid bonder together; AMAT owns ~9%
- → SK Hynix · tools for SK Hynix's hybrid-bonding pilot line
▼ Hanmi Semiconductor 042700
- → Besi · rival technologies: fused vs bumps
- → SK Hynix · main supplier of solder-bump bonders for HBM4
● SK Hynix 000660
- → Nvidia · buys HBM; its chips set how tall stacks get
- → Hanmi Semiconductor · main supplier of solder-bump bonders for HBM4
- → Besi · tools for SK Hynix's hybrid-bonding pilot line
- → ASMPT · supplies about half of its HBM4 solder-bump bonders
● Samsung Electronics 005930
- → Besi · possible hybrid-bonder customer for HBM
- → Nvidia · buys HBM
- → ASMPT · in talks to supply solder-bump bonders
● Micron MU
- → Besi · possible hybrid-bonder customer for HBM
- → ASMPT · supplies solder-bump (TCB) bonders
- → Nvidia · buys HBM
● ASMPT 0522
- → Micron · supplies solder-bump (TCB) bonders
- → Besi · competitor in bonders
- → SK Hynix · supplies about half of its HBM4 solder-bump bonders
- → Samsung Electronics · in talks to supply solder-bump bonders
▲ Applied Materials AMAT
- → Besi · build the Kinex hybrid bonder together; AMAT owns ~9%
● ASML ASML
- → Besi · possible new competitor in hybrid bonding
● Nvidia NVDA
- → SK Hynix · buys HBM; its chips set how tall stacks get
- → Samsung Electronics · buys HBM
- → Micron · buys HBM
05 · OUR THESES
Research you can follow.
Region
Next thesis in research
Sign up to be notified.
9
Companies covered
13
Milestones tracked
2
Dates confirmed
22
Sources monitored
42
Log entries · last 30 days
Team at work · Updated 2 days ago
01
We write both sides
02
We monitor filings, calendars and news
03
We verify every change, with its source
06 · STAY ON TOP OF IT
The facts change. Stay with them.
Real-time alerts
Email, Telegram · WhatsApp soon
Sunday summary
Your theses, reviewed weekly
Calendar
Every milestone that matters
Fair value
Soon
Portfolio exposure
Soon